With the Champions and Challenge Cup competitions now down to their final four, focus in France switches back to domestic rugby and the Top 14 run-in, where things are far from clear
Six rounds of the regular Top 14 season remain. And it seems that Stade Francais and Toulouse have the automatic semi-final places sewn up. At the other end of the table, Oyonnax, promoted as ProD2 champions, appear set to return to the second-tier after just one season.
These are the current standings, after 20 matches:
With the highly likely exceptions of the top two and the bottom one, the rest of the table is in flux. At this stage, any side as far down as Perpignan, in ninth, may well make the play-offs – even for 12th-placed Lyon, it’s not beyond dreaming if quite in the realms of reckoning. On the other hand, any side as far up as Pau, in seventh, could – in theory – end the campaign in the relegation play-off spot currently occupied by Montpellier.
Here, in league order after 20 rounds of the season, with six remaining, a closer look at each team’s prospects at the start of the closing sprint of the Top 14’s regular season.
Stade Français – 63 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Bayonne (h), Clermont (a), Toulouse (a), Bordeaux (h), Castres (a), Toulon (h)
Stade Francais’ coaches have plans in place to maintain players’ match-readiness during a stop-start run-in caused by their failure to reach the knockout phase of the Champions Cup.
We’ll get a first-look at how their plans are panning out when they meet Bayonne this weekend, as the Top 14 returns for a two-week run before the Champions and Challenge Cup semi-finals on the first weekend of May. They look pretty confident in training, though…
Then there’s another two week’s of the Top 14, a domestic break for finals weekend, and another couple of matches before the play-offs. Which, if Stade maintain their place in the top two, will mean another week off before the semi-finals in Bordeaux.
Their season so far has been built on and run by Paul Gustard’s defence. The coach was, temporarily, in overall charge of day-to-day first-team matters until Laurent Labit and Karim Ghezal arrived after the Rugby World Cup – they, wisely, chose not to change a domestically winning, if generally fairly dull, formula.
Still, you can’t argue with success. The Parisians have won six of their 10 matches to date on the road, and have lost just once at home. Assuming they’ve got their planning right – and, in the Top 14 so far they haven’t got much wrong in results terms – Stade Francais will be in the top two in six rounds’ time, and have a bye to the semi-finals in Bordeaux.
Toulouse – 60 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Toulon (a), Racing 92 (h), Stade Français (h), Montpellier (a), La Rochelle (h), Lyon (a)
The odds on the end of May including a thoroughly mouthwatering Toulouse-Leinster Champions Cup final in London reduced dramatically at the weekend, after both sides made relatively light work of their quarter-final opponents at the weekend. Yes, Northampton and Harlequins will have their say – but it’s really very hard to see past the number one and number two seeds in the competition.
Centre Paul Costes won the player-of-the-match award in Toulouse’s 64-26 win over Exeter at Stade Ernest Wallon on Sunday. The 21-year-old has a bright future in the game: probably the only thing that will prevent his selection for France’s July tour would be Toulouse also making the final of the Top 14.
Crucially, Mola’s learned from the 2021/22 campaign – when his shattered Grand Slam stars were thrown straight back into the Top 14 and Champions Cup fray. They fell in the closing stages of each competition, out on their feet at the business end of the season – as La Rochelle were in Dublin on Saturday afternoon.
To handle their run-in, Toulouse recalled the promising twin-sided prop Marco Trauth from loan at Beziers as cover, after another called-back loanee, Paul Mallez, who has been with Provence this season, was injured. The reason? Tighthead stocks aren’t quite as fresh as they’d like them to be – he’s basically there to give Dorian Aldegheri and Joel Merkler a break.
With Paul Graou an effective and willing understudy to Antoine Dupont, and with Baptiste Germain in reserve, as well as multiple options in just about every position, Toulouse are about as well-placed as they could be to challenge for the double this season.
Two things could stop them. An unlikely off-day. Or Leinster.
Racing 92 – 52 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Oyonnax (a), Toulouse (a), Bayonne (h), Lyon (a), Pau (h), La Rochelle (a)
Stuart Lancaster’s Racing 92 are being tested to their limits this World Cup-affected season. They struggled in the Six Nations period – the coach then referenced the problems of missing key players, as their playing stock shortcomings were ruthlessly exposed.
There are, at the time of writing, nine players in the infirmary, including Springbok Siya Kolisi, who managed just 21 minutes in the Champions Cup round-of-16 defeat at Toulouse on his return from a hand injury, Nolan Le Garrec, Antoine Gibert, James Hall, Camille Chat and Ibrahim Diallo.
Some of them are expected back for the weekend’s trip to Oyonnax, but the coach was reduced to welcoming the now-empty weekends during the Champions Cup competitions as Racing’s focus switched entirely to the Top 14.
But, with four away matches in their last six – and their two remaining ‘home’ games moved to Auxerre because of a combination of Taylor Swift and Olympic Games’ preparation at La Defense Arena – the squad has an injury crisis to contend with.
The inconvenient truth is that Racing’s lack of depth has been shown up this season. Something they’re very much working on. This campaign is far from a write-off, but expect a stronger run in all competitions next season.
Toulon – 51 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Toulouse (h), La Rochelle (a), Lyon (h), Oyonnax (a), Clermont (h), Stade Français (a)
At the business end of a season best described as unsettled, Toulon are dangerously close to featuring in the play-offs for the first time since the 2017/18 campaign as they look forward to a big encounter in Marseille.
They were second in early November. By early March, they were eighth, following a run of three wins from 13 matches in all competitions – and the drums of discontent were beating loud in the Mayol stands, directed variously at the players, the coaches, the management.
Two big Top 14 wins later, they’re fourth, a home ‘barrage’ match in their hands. Finishing in the top six wouldn’t necessarily silence the critics in the crowds – six years of what one fans’ group branded ‘sporting nothingness’ following the takeover by parapharma magnate Bernard Lemaitre won’t be solved by a single post-season return – swallows and summers and all that. But it would give boss Pierre Mignoni some much-needed respite.
La Rochelle – 51 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Castres (a), Toulon (h), Bordeaux (a), Pau (h), Toulouse (a), Racing 92 (h)
Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle have no time to take stock after their Champions Cup quarter-final defeat to Leinster at the Aviva. They’re also smackbang in the middle of one of the tightest Top 14 run-ins in several years.
And they have a gap in their trophy cabinet to fill. A domestic one. La Rochelle may be two-time Champions Cup winners, but they have never been French champions.
“This kind of defeat in the quarter-finals, we have to accept it … We still remember last year’s failure (in the final against Toulouse) . The motivation is there. We have never won the Top 14, so the motivation will come back on its own.”
And the fact is, La Rochelle have been sub-par this season, by their expectations. Their Top 14 record is a thoroughly middling 10 wins, 10 losses, worse than sixth-place Bordeaux, the same as seventh-placed Pau and Perpignan, in ninth.
And yet, Ronan O’Gara’s side are fifth in the table, in the play-off places, courtesy of 11 bonus points – more than any other side in the French top flight. They’d be 12th without them. With the league average of seven points, they’d be seventh.
O’Gara has repeatedly said that form is most important at the business end of the season. That mantra will be tested to its fullest – starting this week – as his Rochelais’ side face arguably the most difficult Top 14 run-in of all the sides against opponents that all have various play-off ambitions of their own. His first squad selection will be particularly interesting – as he manages shattered bodies and tired minds to the end of the season.
Bordeaux – 49 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Clermont (h), Bayonne (a), La Rochelle (h), Stade Français (a), Perpignan (a), Oyonnax (h)
How Bordeaux react to their 42-41 Champions Cup defeat at home to Harlequins will be worth watching. Yes, Damian Penaud was in the stands, and Matthieu Jalibert was on watercarrying duty, but it’s probably safe to say that they were still thinking of the semi-finals before earning the right to do so.
Certainly Clermont, who fairly powered past Ulster in an unsubtly direct Challenge Cup quarter-final at Stade Marcel Michelin earlier the same Saturday afternoon, will have paid close attention to the manner in which the Premiership side dominated the scrum, and may be thinking of copying the template.
Like La Rochelle, one place above them in the Top 14 and also dumped out of the Champions Cup, Yannick Bru’s men will have to quickly digest that disappointment and learn from it.
“The energy and the state of mind of the guys are always very positive, it’s a strength,” Yannick Bru insisted after Saturday’s slightly surprising loss. “We can rely on that. But we saw red lights on in certain areas. We won’t be able to achieve our goals if we don’t correct them … We’ll find out if we’re really big boys when it comes to remobilising.”
Yeah. We will.
Pau – 46 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Montpellier (h), Lyon (a), Oyonnax (h), La Rochelle (a), Racing 92 (a), Perpignan (h)
Sebastien Piqueronies’ revolution at Pau continues – the coach’s genuine disappointment at the home defeat to Connacht in the Challenge Cup round-of-16 is testament to his ambition, as well as his youth-and-experience philosophy.
There’s little wonder ProD2 neighbours Agen have fished the same source – France’s under-20 set-up – for their next manager, Sebastien Calvet.
Pau have never finished higher than eighth since Simon Mannix got them into the Top 14 in 2015. They’ve never had a better chance to break into the top half of the French top flight, with three very winnable home matches against league strugglers in their run-in, and points to get on the road, certainly at Lyon and Auxerre.
And All Black legend Sam Whitelock will want to go out on a high after announcing his retirement from rugby at the end of the season. He won’t be the only one at Stade du Hameau dreaming of a Top 14 play-off place, and setting off into the rugby sunset by sending his current club into virgin Champions Cup territory.
Castres – 45 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: La Rochelle (h), Oyonnax (a), Montpellier (h), Clermont (a), Stade Français (h), Bayonne (a)
Castres will be happy enough with dipping out of the Challenge Cup at Gloucester in the round-of-16. It was another defeat, yes, their fifth in a row. They weren’t embarrassed, however, and while they lost a quarter-final shot, they gained a week off to prepare for the stop-start final Top 14 stretch – while their first-up opponents when the Top 14 returns this weekend, La Rochelle, were in Dublin for that Champions Cup quarter-final.
That quarter-final break, brief though it was, could not have come at a more-important time for Castres. As recently as mid-February, they were third in the Top 14, but four domestic defeats on the bounce saw them drop out of the play-off places altogether, and reanimated zombie questions about their management – uncertainty over head coach Jeremy Davidson’s future; attack coach David Darricarrerre heading to Brive; lineout coach Yannick Cabellero and scrum coach Karena Wihongi out of contract at the end of the season; and performance director Vincent Giacobbi joining Clermont. Amid all this – president Pierre-Yves Revol has insisted Davidson will stay at least to 2025 – and on a run of eight Top 14 defeats in 11, Castres somehow need a strong run-in.
In a recent interview with L’Equipe, lock Tom Staniforth said: “I’m not worried, but we have to be careful … We must not stress or panic. We need to be clear and precise.”
True enough. How, though?, is the key question.
Perpignan – 44 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Lyon (h), Montpellier (a), Clermont (h), Bayonne (a), Bordeaux (h), Pau (a)
After Perpignan’s thoroughly impressive 43-12 home win over Castres on the 20th weekend of the Top 14, manager Franck Azema insisted he, ‘didn’t care about looking [too far] ahead’.
“There is no risk of us getting carried away,” he insisted. “We will keep working in training and in every match to stay at this level … There are six matches left and we will do the accounts at the end.”
His one-game-at-a-time cliche is understandable. But, after two seasons of Top 14 survival play-offs, a shot at the top six is not beyond Perpignan’s reach. They’ve won eight of their past 11 matches to climb to within five points of sixth-place Bordeaux. It’s unlikely, but not entirely out of the question.
Bayonne – 43 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Stade Français (a), Bordeaux (h), Racing 92 (a), Perpignan (h), Oyonnax (a), Castres (h)
Should we really mention the difficult second season cliche in relation to Bayonne and manager Gregory Patat? By common agreement, they stormed their return to the Top 14 last season – seriously threatening to become the first side since Racing 92 to go promotion to play-off in a single season. In the end, they missed out on a top six finish, but they did qualify for a first-ever Champions Cup run.
That was last season, when they finished in eighth, with 58 points from their 26 matches. A similar points total looks very possible this time around. They could even end up with more.
But the truth is, after 20 rounds of last season, Bayonne had 50 points and were sixth in the table. They’re 10th and have seven points less this time around. So, yes, it’s a difficult second season. And they don’t have an easy run-in. Four – even five at a push – of their six final opponents have play-off ambitions. Three of them aren’t necessarily safe from the drop.
Clermont – 42 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Bordeaux (a), Stade Français (h), Perpignan (a), Castres (h), Toulon (a), Montpellier (h)
Clermont are busily disproving the adage about the inevitable fatality of hope. It’s not that long ago that they were competing and failing on multiple fronts every season. Now, for the most part, they’re not managing even that.
One morsel of ambition remains. The Challenge Cup. A backdoor incentive to next season’s Champions Cup. Clermont face a semi-final against URC side Sharks at The Stoop in early May.
But that dream presents its own problems. Clermont aren’t exactly safe from the relegation places. And their Top 14 future probably isn’t going to be much easier to read after the two matches – at a shell-shocked Bordeaux and against a rested Stade Francais – between now and that last-four encounter in London.
That quarter-final win over Ulster, however, could be a gateway drug to actual team-led Top 14 performances in the run-in. It was, by some distance, their best outing in 2024.
With three home matches to come, Clermont should be confident of Top 14 status next season. But it may be panic-stations if they lose to Stade Francais in a rescheduled Top 14 outing a week before the semi-final.
Lyon – 42 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Perpignan (a), Pau (h), Toulon (a), Racing 92 (h), Montpellier (a), Toulouse (h)
Fabien Gengenbacher’s Lyon had more pressing matters than a possible Champions Cup quarter-final when they headed to Loftus for their round-of-16 match against Bulls.
They’re four points above the Top 14 relegation play-off place, with six matches of the season to come, including what could be a decisive trip to 13th-placed Montpellier on the penultimate weekend of the regular season.
Their home form – they’ve won nine of 10 at Stade Gerland so far this season – should be enough to carry them through. But a cheeky first home win of the campaign wouldn’t go amiss, either. Their best target for four points on the road? That match against Montpellier. Some away bonus points would be welcome, too. Lyon have a grand total of one of those so far.
Montpellier – 38 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Pau (a), Perpignan (h), Castres (a), Toulouse (h), Lyon (h), Clermont (a)
Montpellier owner Mohed Altrad has refused to even consider the possibility that the 2022 Top 14 champions could drop down to the ProD2, even though they are currently 13th in the table, the relegation play-off place.
In an interview with regional newspaper Midi Libre, Altrad skirted the catastrophic season at the GGL by admitting: “We have two possibilities of saving ourselves – the play-off match or by finishing 12th, so two chances.”
Success, then, is survival by any means. And Montpellier are prepared to flirt with a points deduction next season for averaging lower than French professional rugby’s required 16 JIFF-player minimum to do that. They currently average 15.55 JIFF players. It will be tight one way or the other, but – right now – staying in the Top 14 matters more than future points sanctions.
And Altrad is throwing next-season bones to the fans. Jam tomorrow, he’s promising. That’s how bad things are right now. He confirmed Hurricanes’ Joshua Moorby had agreed a deal to join Montpellier next season, alongside Billy Vunipola, Nicolas Martins, Elia Elia and Mohamed Haouas; while Madosh Tambwe is strongly rumoured to be leaving Bordeaux for the Herault.
Altrad also admitted that the club seriously considered bringing Mako Vunipola to the south of France, but decided against offering him a contract because of rules on non-JIFF players in wider squads.
Oyonnax – 26 points
Remaining Top 14 fixtures: Racing 92 (h), Castres (h), Pau (a), Toulon (h), Bayonne (h), Bordeaux (a)
If promoted ProD2 champions Oyonnax, off the pace at the foot of the table towards the end of their first season back in the French top flight, have a sniff of a chance of survival, it lies wholly in the fact that four of their remaining six Top 14 matches – and, therefore, 20 of the remaining 30 points available to them this season – are at home.
As it was at this stage with Brive last year – who were nine points adrift of Perpignan at the same point in the campaign – it’s not quite officially over for Oyonnax. That said, even if they win all their home matches with a bonus-point, 46 points doesn’t look like it will be enough this season. They need points away, too. And plenty of them.
Even if they’re not talking about it publicly, Oyonnax are planning for an immediate return to the ProD2. They’re bringing in players – such as Zack Holmes and Antoine Miquel, from Bordeaux – to start an immediate return offensive.
My name is James Harrington. I’m a freelance sports journalist, writing mostly about French club and international rugby. If, after reading this, you feel the urge to commission me for match previews, reviews, articles, news, features, interviews, live blogs, feel free to contact me
And, please read my weekly French rugby column in The Rugby Paper every Sunday. And I also round-up all the weekend’s Top 14 action on the Irish Examiner website.
James Harrington: Freelance sports journalist 