Top 14 rugby sums: what’s at stake in the final round of the season

After 25 weekends of Top 14 rugby, it comes down – as it always does – to this, the final round of the season.

There’s a semi-final spot at stake, three places in the play-offs have yet to be confirmed, Champions Cup spots remain available … and there’s relegation to avoid. Here are the permutations and calculations the coaches are considering heading into ‘Super samedi’

It’s the final weekend of the regular Top 14 season this weekend. All seven matches kick off at the same time, to ramp up the drama. And here are the fixtures.

At the top of the table, Bordeaux and Toulon are fighting it out for second place, which comes with a direct pass to the semi-finals in Lyon. 

Bayonne, Castres, La Rochelle and Clermont are chasing three remaining play-off places. All of them could claim home advantage in the barrage round, or miss out on the play-offs completely – while eighth-placed Pau aren’t completely out of the race. 

Montpellier and Racing, meanwhile, want their say in the hunt for Champions Cup berths.

And, at the foot of the table, it looks a lot like Vannes are condemned to an immediate return to the ProD2, after a long and brave battle for survival. But Stade Francais and Perpignan have plenty to fight for.

Only one side has nothing beyond pride to play for on Saturday – and there’s something riding on every match on the road to Stade de France.

1 TOULOUSE (90 points)

Final match: Perpignan (A)

With one match of the regular season left, the defending champions have already scored more tries (113) and more match points (836) than any other side in Top 14 history. That surprise defeat at home to Racing 92 on May 17, however, means they cannot overtake their own record of 98 league points from 2018/19. 

They’re streets ahead of the chasing pack, and have their tickets booked for the first of the two semi-finals in Lyon. And yet, Toulouse aren’t happy. Far from it. Missing out on the Champions Cup final made them mad. Losing to Racing made them madder. As Lyon discovered on the penultimate weekend of the season, opponents won’t like it when Toulouse are mad. 

There’s no need for Ugo Mola to send a full-bore squad to Lyon and it won’t be a surprise to see some squad rotation. But Toulouse have a self-declared point to prove after missing out on the Champions Cup. They’ll want to play – and win – three more matches before the season ends. 

2 BORDEAUX (73)

Final match: Vannes (H)

“We drank too much beer, and our brains weren’t working as well.” That was manager Yannick Bru’s assessment after Bordeaux gave up a 10-point lead to lose 27-10 at Toulon on Sunday, just over a week after they had lifted the Champions Cup for the first time in Cardiff. 

And yet, he was satisfied enough, given the situation. He’d rested 12 of the Cardiff finalists for the tricky trip to Mayol, where the most important goal was not to let second place – with its precious bye to the semi-finals – slip out of their grasp. 

There were some squeaky moments on Sunday, but Bordeaux stopped Toulon from getting the bonus point they needed to steal second. Their future – and that free barrage weekend, which Bru declared ‘vital’ to any side’s chances of winning the Brennus these days – remains firmly in their hands, as they entertain Vannes at Stade Chaban Delmas. 

3 TOULON (72)

Final match: Bayonne (A)

Second or third. Three or four more matches. That’s the either/or option facing Toulon at the end of a long and punishing Top 14 campaign. A top-two finish means a weekend off during the barrage round of the play-offs. Third means home ground advantage against the side that finishes sixth in the barrage round.

The problem is, unlike Bordeaux who face the same situation, the outcome is out of Toulon’s control. If they had managed a try-scoring bonus on Sunday as well as a first win in four Top 14 outings, they would be in second looking down. They didn’t, so they’re in third looking up. 

It leaves Pierre Mignoni with a dilemma. Go all out for second, with no guarantee of success at Bayonne next Saturday. Or rest key players for the final round of the regular season, accept that second is unlikely, and prepare for a three-match assault on the title, starting with a barrage round match at Mayol. With no guarantee of success – as they discovered last season when they hosted La Rochelle.

4 BAYONNE (64)

Final match: Toulon (H)

So far so good. Now it starts getting … mathematical, as every position between fourth and seventh remains wide open. It looks a lot like fourth-placed Bayonne are set for a play-off run. But there’s one very dark cloud on the horizon. 

If they lose at home for the first time this season and don’t get a defensive bonus; if Castres and La Rochelle both win on the road, and if Clermont pick up a bonus-point victory at Montpellier, then the Basque side drop out of the play-off places altogether. 

That’s the worst-case scenario. Just one point against Toulon on Saturday will be enough to ensure Bayonne finish in the top six. The question is fourth, fifth, or sixth. 

They at least are at home, while Castres, La Rochelle and Clermont are all on the road on the final night of Top 14 regular season rugby. The more pressing question – given Bayonne have beaten all-comers on their own turf this season – is home or away. Fourth means a play-off at Jean Dauger. Fifth or sixth means a road trip. Seventh… well, that doesn’t bear thinking about.

5 CASTRES (63)

Final match: Stade Francais (A)

Regardless of the result at Bayonne, Castres could do with a win – or a draw – at struggling Stade Francais on Saturday. 

If Bayonne then lose, Castres would climb to fourth and bag home advantage in the barrage round. At a pinch a bonus point would be enough, if Bayonne get nothing from their match thanks to last weekend’s bonus-point win over the Basque side at Stade Pierre Fabre. If Bayonne win, a positive result for Castres would hold off the challenges of La Rochelle and Clermont. But, they haven’t actually beaten Stade in Paris for quite some time.

Defeat, however, would leave them relying on favours from Pau and Montpellier. Castres’ new head coach Xavier Sadourny – they have won 10 and drawn two of 15 games since he took charge in January – will want to pile the pressure on Bayonne rather than hoping for help from their south-west France rivals

6 LA ROCHELLE (62)

Final match: Pau (A)

During the dark 105 winless days of early 2025 – which featured a total six Top 14 matches, including two home draws and four away defeats – La Rochelle players talking openly about the play-offs, which they were, seemed laughable. Which it was. 

Now, five wins on the bounce later, they’re sixth, and the maths looks reassuringly simple. Win at Pau, and they’re in the play-offs – with results at Bayonne and Stade Francais dictating whether they finish in fourth, fifth or sixth. Lose and they need Montpellier to beat Clermont at the GGL if they are to hang on to sixth.

There’s one more very outside, very convoluted possibility, that falls badly for Ronan O’Gara’s side. If they draw at Pau, if Bayonne lose by more than five points at home to Toulon, if Castres take a point at Stade Francais, and Clermont win with a bonus at Montpellier, then four teams will finish level on 64 points. 

In that implausible but not impossible situation, Clermont will finish fourth, ahead of Castres, and then Bayonne. La Rochelle will finish seventh.

7 CLERMONT (59)

Final match: Montpellier (A)

Seventh-placed Clermont have not reached the Top 14 play-offs since 2021, and their hopes of breaking that streak this season rests in the hands of others. They have one job: beat Champions Cup place–chasing Montpellier at the GGL. A bonus point would be … well, a bonus.

Then, if they manage that – which isn’t guaranteed – they need one or both of Castres and La Rochelle to lose. That scenario would get them a barrage round road trip. 

The possibility that they could steal the one remaining open home barrage slot on the final night exists – though that requires a Marvel Multiverse coming together of possibilities. 

That losing bonus at Castres in a rescheduled Top 14 match could be invaluable in the final reckoning. First though, they have to beat Montpellier.

8 PAU (57)

Final match: La Rochelle (H)

Pau – stupidly young, ridiculously talented Pau – have never finished higher than eighth in the Top 14. Heading into the final weekend of this season they hold the last of the Champions Cup places … and have an unlikely shot at stealing sixth.

They would have to claim a five-point win over La Rochelle at Stade du Hameau, overcome a 25-point deficit, and hope Clermont lose at Montpellier to do so – but, after their exploits at Vannes last weekend is it completely out of the question?

Well …. very probably. A Champions Cup place is the closer, easier target for Sebastien Picqueronies’ charges. But this squad’s getting better and more experienced. 

9 MONTPELLIER (56)

Final match: Clermont (H)

A top six finish may be out of reach for Montpellier this season – but a Champions Cup slot isn’t. And the calculation is very simple: beat Clermont. 

This is the side, remember, that survived last season’s promotion-relegation play-off at Grenoble by the skin of a late Louis Carbonel penalty, so almost anything is an improvement. 

Rookie head coach Joan Caudullo stepped up from the club’s academy to lead the first team in July, after short-term predecessor Patrice Collazo – parachuted in to replace Richard Cockerill – had just about engineered that high-risk play-off route survival plan last season. He’d probably have taken a shot at bagging a Champions Cup place if it was offered to him when he took over.

10 RACING 92 (52)

Final match: Lyon (A)

Racing’s proud record of finishing in the top six every year since they returned to the Top 14 at the end of the 2008/09 campaign has gone. Missing out on the post-season run to the Brennus will hurt in more ways than one. 

But they’re not completely out of the race for a Champions Cup berth. If Racing grab five points at Stade Gerland, and Pau lose heavily at home to La Rochelle, then the two sides will finish level on points. And, in the arcane Top 14 league analysis reckoning, that gives Racing a crucial edge. In Princess Bride terms, it’s the difference between mostly dead and completely dead. Only, here, there’s no Magic Max or narrative imperative in their favour. They have to win big away. Pau have to lose at home.

Having left Montpellier at the end of last season, Collazo took over from Stuart Lancaster as head coach at Racing on February 1 on a short-term single samurai save-the-club deal. Seven wins and a draw in 12 matches later, Top 14 safety assured, he signed a new two-year contract, then lost to Montpellier. His mandate now switches from commando coach to longer-term mastermind, but he’ll want to end this season on a strong note to set the tone.

11 LYON (50)

Final match: Racing 92 (H)

A team with nothing to play for, in a match with zero stakes. Except pride. And that matters. 

Lyon had dragged themselves into the hunt for the play-offs under Karim Ghezal, who became head coach in December. But four losses in their last five Top 14 matches has seen them slip back to 11th, out of reach of the Champions Cup places – which wouldn’t have mattered if they’d beaten Bath in the Challenge Cup final. But they lost to Bath, and they’ve faded badly in the Top 14. 

After Sunday’s 43-3 thumping in Toulouse, Ghezal publicly warned his players that the club, “can no longer remain [stuck] in 12th, 11th, 10th”. 

He added: “I told the players that … it will be up to them to decide if they want to throw away six months’ work, or if they want to go on vacation with a little pride, having won one last game at home.”

Gauntlet, meet floor.

12 STADE FRANCAIS (41)

Final match: Castres (H)

There are poor seasons. There are ones to forget. Then, there’s whatever this has so far been and could continue to be for Stade Francais. It’s crossed into the realm of nightmares, one that may in future be employed as a chilling morality tale for young players at Stade Jean Bouin.

Switching metaphors, their hand heading into the final round of the season isn’t good, but it’s marginally better than Perpignan’s, and noticeably stronger than that of Vannes.  

Beat Castres, and they’re safe. Draw or lose, and they might be in trouble. There’ll be watchful eyes on the state of play at Stade Aime-Giral and Stade Chaban Delmas, for a while at least.

13 PERPIGNAN (40)

Final match: Toulouse (H)

A third survival play-off in four seasons against the losing side in Saturday’s ProD2 final between Grenoble and Montauban looks to be the most likely scenario for Franck Azema’s Catalans.

Perpignan’s record against Stade Francais this season means a losing bonus point would not be enough to overtake the Parisians – they need to beat Toulouse, and hope Stade can only only draw or lose at home against Castres.

Even if Perpignan lose to Toulouse on Saturday, bottom side Vannes will have to pull off something remarkable to overtake them.

14 VANNES (36)

Final match: Bordeaux (A)

An impossibly narrow – almost purely mathematical – path to survival remains for everyone’s favourite Top 14 underdog Vannes at the end of their first-ever foray into the top flight of senior men’s professional rugby in France. 

It starts with them having to win, with a bonus-point, at Bordeaux, a side with positional issues of their own on the final weekend of the regular domestic season.

Even then, they have to rely on both Stade Francais and Perpignan getting nothing out of their home fixtures against Castres and Toulouse respectively. A bonus-point win – a simple victory isn’t enough because of head-to-head results – and nothing for Perpignan would see the Breton side move to 13th, and one last survival chance in the promotion-relegation play-off.

And if that’s all too mind-bending. Here it is again in graphic form…

Looking for insightful, knowledgeable French rugby content? My name is James Harrington. I’m a France-based freelance sports journalist, writing mostly about French club and international rugby. Contact me for match previews, reviews, articles, news, features, interviews, live blogs, or just all-round, up-to-date, French rugby expertise.

You can read my regular French rugby column in The Rugby Paper every Sunday. I also round-up the Top 14 action on the Irish Examiner website.

I’ve popped up on Rugbypass, and even done bits for Rugby World.